The Mainstream Finally Admits the Planet is Cooling

A study by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has concluded that the solar cycle and volcanic activity both have a cooling effect on the planet. The report appears in the Journal: Nature Geoscience.

This admission from mainstream scientists that even though greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising, the temperatures at the surface are not, is a major blow to the theory of  global warming. It may not seem like much, but it’s a big deal. This study proves that the heat that would be generated by the rise in greenhouse gases is nullified by natural processes that are beyond the control of man.

“In the last decade, the amount of volcanic aerosol in the stratosphere has increased, so more sunlight is being reflected back into space,” said Lawrence Livermore climate scientist Benjamin Santer, who serves as lead author of the study. “This has created a natural cooling of the planet and has partly offset the increase in surface and atmospheric temperatures due to human influence.”

From 2000-2012, emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have increased — as they have done since the Industrial Revolution. This human-induced change typically causes the troposphere to warm and the stratosphere to cool. In contrast, large volcanic eruptions cool the troposphere and warm the stratosphere. The researchers report that early 21st century volcanic eruptions have contributed to this recent “warming hiatus,” and that most climate models have not accurately accounted for this effect.

“The recent slow-down in observed surface and tropospheric warming is a fascinating detective story,” Santer said. “There is not a single culprit, as some scientists have claimed. Multiple factors are implicated. One is the temporary cooling effect of internal climate noise. Other factors are the external cooling influences of 21st century volcanic activity, an unusually low and long minimum in the last solar cycle, and an uptick in Chinese emissions of sulfur dioxide.

“The real scientific challenge is to obtain hard quantitative estimates of the contributions of each of these factors to the slow-down.” (source)

The effect of volcanism on global temperatures is well known and has been proven numerous times. What’s interesting though is that the study refers to volcanic eruptions in the early years of the 21st century. In comparison to other decades there has not been an excessive amount of large volcanic eruptions. There has been nothing on the scale of Mount St Helens, or Pinatubo, and nothing even approaching the size of Tambora or Krackatoa.

The volcanic activity we have seen has been at very moderate levels, and it’s interesting to note that even these moderate levels have managed to wipe out the effects of rising green house gases. It’s the amount of volcanoes that have been erupting rather than the size of specific eruptions:

So many volcanoes throwing so much gas, ash and particulates into the air can have an effect on climate, this is a scientific fact. I’m not saying that these volcanoes herald the start of a new ice age but the planet certainly seems to be getting a bit more active of late.

Continued large eruptions put a huge amount of particulate matter into the atmosphere, and these particles reflect sunlight away from earth and when there is enough of them the temperatures can drop. (source)

Changes caused by the solar cycle happen quite slowly, and any cooling effect from low solar activity is most likely from cycle 23, which was quite long but with relatively low activity. This has affected cycle 24, which is also turning out to be longer than average, but with even lower activity levels that cycle 23. The cooling effects of cycle 24 will be felt during the coming decade or two.

Solar cycle 25 is the one that is really scaring the scientists. In a couple of years the polar fields will start to appear, they will gradually mature, and solar cycle 25 will begin around 2020. It is predicted to be the smallest cycle in centuries causing even more cooling as time goes on.

The fact that a mainstream scientific publication is acknowledging these changes is a major step forward in ending the global warming hype that is costing us so much, both financially and in a lack of preparation for the decades of cold weather that will soon be upon us.